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Russia forecasts grow of swine production

According to the forecast of the National Swine union, swine production will increase up to 600 000 by 2020th, including the slaughter weight. The share of the top-2o companies will grow from the current 60% to 75% which will correspond to the world trend.

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In 2009th, the 20 largest companies accounted for about 45% of the industrial production of swine, and the consolidation trend in the industry will continue, which indicates the development of the market. Competition with world players is inevitable both domestically and during exporting. Thus, in the countries with already established meat markets, top 3 companies control at least 50% of production. It is typical for Brazil and the United States. The share of the three largest Russian swine — breeding companies «Miratorg», «Rusagro» and «Cherkizovo» — at the end of last year had only about 25%, and not total production, but only in the industrial sector.

The fact that Russia has perspectives for growth from the from the point of view of concentration of production, is the fact that the leaders of the domestic meat market are not yet among the world’s leading players (according to Rabobank rating).  The first place in this list is Brazilian JBS with a volume of almost 13 million tons (beef, swine and poultry), in the second position — American Tyson with about 8 million tons, the third line with a volume of about 6.8 million is occupied by Chinese WH Foods. For comparison, the group «Cherkizovo», which took the first place in the rating of «Agroinvestor» of the largest Russian meat producers last year, released about 602 thousand tons of pork and poultry in slaughter weight.

In future swine production in the country will grow mainly due to the sector leaders. In particular, the implementation of the program of entrenched import substitution, which began in swine production in 2014th, and it implies an increase in the capacity of a number of operating players by almost half to 2.8 million tons in live weight by 2020th. The volume of investments is estimated at 268 billion rubles. As a result, the share of companies from the top 20 will have 80-90% of the planned increase in swine production in the country

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According to the calculations of the National Swine union, by 2020 about 85% of swine in the industrial sector will be produced at new enterprises and 12% — at modernized, whose technical and technological levels will meet world standards.

Source: Agroinvestor

12.07.2017